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Historical Details
- % Change
- 1 Wk -1.75%
- 1 Month -3.18%
- 3 Months -3.27%
- 6 Months -5.56%
- 1 Year -10.73%
52 Week
- High 1.4697
- Low 1.2624
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
- Q2 2012 1.29
- Q3 2012 1.29
- Q4 2012 1.30
- Q1 2013 1.28
Twice-daily Commentary
17 May 2012 – London: 16:15; Chicago: 10:15; Singapore: 23:15 | 18 May 2012 – Melbourne: 01:15.
The euro traded at $1.2714 this morning, up 0.03% as the Spanish bond auction saw near-total uptake. According to the Bank of Spain, the country managed to sell €2.49 billion in bonds, just below its maximum target of €2.5billion. Bonds due in January 2015 sold at an average yield of 4.375%, compared with 2.89% in April. Demand was 4.47 times the amount sold, against 2.41 at the last auction.
July 2015 bonds sold at 4.876%, compared with 4.037% on 3 May. The bid-to-cover for the securities increased to 3.01, compared with 2.88 earlier. Bonds due in April 2016 were also sold, and yielded 5.106%.
EUR/USD was further affected by the ECB’s decision to stop providing liquidity to some Greek banks, citing them as severely undercapitalised.
Across the Atlantic, the weekly US initial jobless claims will be released at 1.30pm (London time). Minutes of the Fed's most recent policy-setting meeting, released yesterday, showed policymakers last month thought the US central bank might need to do more to support the economy if the recovery stumbles.
The prospect of further easing may restrict the greenback, although the Greece situation looks grave enough for further euro weakness.
On the technical side, if the $1.27 level of support is broken we may see the euro trend towards $1.2650. Anthony Grech, London
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Historical Details
- % Change
- 1 Week 1.24%
- 1 Month -0.17%
- 3 Months 1.17%
- 6 Months 0.92%
- 1 Year -0.69%
52 Week
- High 1.1081
- Low 0.9388
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
- Q1 2012 1.05
- Q2 2012 1.03
- Q3 2012 1.04
- Q4 2012 1.05
Twice-daily Commentary
13 March 2012 – Chicago 00.00; London: 06.00; Singapore: 13.00; Melbourne: 15.00. The main theme across all asset markets on Thursday was 'risk on' after comments from key FOMC members invigorated hopes of more Fed easing action (QE III), and rumours made the rounds that the China GDP data to be released later today will be better than the 8.3% expected. The markets completely shrugged off the negative news that US weekly jobless claims jumped to be much worse than expected (380,000/355,000 expected), with some saying that it bolstered risk sentiment as it strengthened the case for more Fed accommodation. Key commodities bounced hard on the China GDP rumour, with copper surging over 2.0% after five days of selling, while NYMEX Crude added another 1.0%. AUD/USD was the best performing currency on the day, gaining 1.25% against the USD and JPY (AUD/USD traded as high as 1.0451). The AUD was given an added boost by the much stronger-than-expected Australia employment data. The strong Australia jobs data helped to create a divergence in central bank expectations, as the RBA is less dovish now, while Fed expectations turned considerably more dovish following comments from Yellen and Dudley. Yesterday, AUD/USD broke above a short-term downtrend resistance line which has been in place since end of February. Unfortunately, the disappointing China GDP reading this morning saw AUD/USD come off significantly to print a low of 1.03904. However, the pair remains above the previous downtrend resistance line and might find some support there. Stan Shamu, Australia
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Historical Details
- % Change
- 1 Week -1.70%
- 1 Month -2.38%
- 3 Months 5.20%
- 6 Months 5.29%
- 1 Year -3.12%
52 Week
- High 84.79
- Low 75.35
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
- Q1 2012 77.00
- Q2 2012 82.00
- Q3 2012 84.00
- Q4 2012 80.00
Twice-daily Commentary
12 March 2012 – Chicago 00.00; London: 06.00; Singapore: 13.00; Melbourne: 15.00. USD/JPY recovered from a session low of 80.57 to reach a high of 81.12, as risk appetite came back into traders’ mindsets, lifting US yields. US data overnight did not really cause too much of a stir, and although the Beige book was considered broadly positive for the USD, given it suggested the US economy was expanding at a modest to moderate pace, it probably doesn’t change the argument for QE3 which seems to be the key catalyst for the USD. Federal Reserve Vice Chairwomen Janet Yellen spoke today in Asian trade and sent a pretty dovish message to the market, suggesting ‘further monetary policy easing could be warranted if the US recovery proceeds at slower-than-expected pace’. The Vice Chairwomen went to say a highly accommodative policy is still appropriate in the present circumstance; very similar to what Ben Bernanke recently said. There was little reaction in the forex market despite, her comments seemingly more dovish than what the market had been positioned for, and some strategists are interpreting that she would prefer to see initial Fed tightening sometime in 2015. Looking forward, traders will be keen to see the US trade balance figures, because a sizeable miss to consensus could see economists revise Q1 US growth forecasts, while the weekly jobless claims are quite significant given the recent weaker-than-expected payrolls report. Chris Weston, Australia
Notes: Chart data based on IG's prices. Charts supplied by IT Finance. Bloomberg Median Forecasts are produced by Bloomberg by taking the median level from rates forecast by a number of contributors, which consist of leading banks and security firms.
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